John Nelson, Editor, Smithers06.05.25
Rising demand for hygiene goods—adult incontinence wear, diapers and feminine hygiene pads—is underpinning ongoing profitability in, and reorganization of, fluff pulp supply chains.
These accounted for 89.7% of global consumption, which reached 7.3 million air-dried tons in 2024, according to exclusive data from the Smithers market report – The Future of Fluff Pulp to 2029. This yielded sales of $9.7 billion in 2024.
Fluff pulp revenues have risen since 2020 at a 11.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Prices peaked in 2022 at $2200 per air dried ton before falling back to around $1260 per air-dried ton in 2024. This is attributable to structural problems in global production capacity. Mill owners are taking some steps to rectify these, but new assets will take time to come online; and geopolitical factors, including a U.S.-China trade war, adds extra uncertainty in the short term.
Demand for diapers and feminine hygiene goods is growing, in developing economies as disposable incomes improve. Birth rates in developed economies remain stable, but there is an ongoing expansion in the elderly population, who are likely to develop bladder or other incontinence problems as they age. These consumers are increasingly turning to adult incontinence wear as a solution, allowing them to continue active, normal lifestyles.
This has helped make adult incontinence products the leading user of fluff pulp—consuming a projected 2.4 million air-dried tons in 2024. Hygiene companies are expanding their ranges of adult pads, underwear and underpads for both institutional and retail channels. The segment is far from saturated, and will continue to be the most lucrative application for fluff pulp across the next five years.
Fluff pulp production is highly dependent on certain species of pine trees. These grow in temperate regions, meaning that while fluff pulp demand is global, production is not. Only three regions produce fluff pulp. Capacity is concentrated in North America, which is the main export market; South America is increasing output; and Europe has a smaller capacity, mainly for domestic consumption. In contrast, Asia accounts for 41.4% of global demand, but has practically no fluff pulp production. And the only mill manufacturing fluff pulp in Asia, operated by Daio in Japan, needs to import the wood from across the Pacific.
In North America, three companies—Georgia-Pacific, International Paper, and Paper Excellence-Domtar—control 77.4% of all contemporary fluff pulp output. In the first half of the decade they closed several important fluff pulp mills in the U.S., reducing supply and pushing prices up. Only limited expansions are planned for the region. So despite projects like Georgia-Pacific’s $80 million expansion of capacity at its Alabama River mill, U.S. fluff pulp production is forecast to be largely static over the next five years at around 6.5 million air-dried tons per annum.
One defining characteristic of the evolving fluff pulp market is the importance of swing mills – production assets that can switch production between fluff and other pulps. The market is increasingly dependent on this capacity: Smithers data show that in 2024, 3.4 million tons of such swing potential was used for fluff pulp. With few extra fluff pulp mills set to come on stream in the next five years, and further closures of older assets forecast, there will be even greater demand for swing mills. This could lead to more price volatility, particularly if demand for other pulp grades changes.
Most new fluff pulp capacity will be added in South America. The region has already increased its share of global supply from 6.7% in 2019 to 11.7% in 2024, producing 915,000 air dried tons last year. Multiple investments have been announced. Klabin will ultimately add an extra 500,000-600,000 tons of fluff pulp capacity via its $3 billion dollar expansion of assets in Brazil’s Santa Catarina state. This follows Suzano’s commitment in late 2023 to expand its output by 340,000 air-dried tons in the same country. And Arauco will continue to raise output at its Alto Parana mill in Paraguay.
These and other investments will raise South America’s fluff pulp capacity to 1.46 million air-dried tons in 2029.
The shifting dynamics in supply and demand for fluff pulp globally are analyzed in The Future of Fluff Pulp to 2029 from Smithers; including the impact of projected capacity expansions, leading market drivers, and strategic profiles of all major fluff pulp producers.
These accounted for 89.7% of global consumption, which reached 7.3 million air-dried tons in 2024, according to exclusive data from the Smithers market report – The Future of Fluff Pulp to 2029. This yielded sales of $9.7 billion in 2024.
Fluff pulp revenues have risen since 2020 at a 11.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Prices peaked in 2022 at $2200 per air dried ton before falling back to around $1260 per air-dried ton in 2024. This is attributable to structural problems in global production capacity. Mill owners are taking some steps to rectify these, but new assets will take time to come online; and geopolitical factors, including a U.S.-China trade war, adds extra uncertainty in the short term.
Demand for diapers and feminine hygiene goods is growing, in developing economies as disposable incomes improve. Birth rates in developed economies remain stable, but there is an ongoing expansion in the elderly population, who are likely to develop bladder or other incontinence problems as they age. These consumers are increasingly turning to adult incontinence wear as a solution, allowing them to continue active, normal lifestyles.
This has helped make adult incontinence products the leading user of fluff pulp—consuming a projected 2.4 million air-dried tons in 2024. Hygiene companies are expanding their ranges of adult pads, underwear and underpads for both institutional and retail channels. The segment is far from saturated, and will continue to be the most lucrative application for fluff pulp across the next five years.
Fluff pulp production is highly dependent on certain species of pine trees. These grow in temperate regions, meaning that while fluff pulp demand is global, production is not. Only three regions produce fluff pulp. Capacity is concentrated in North America, which is the main export market; South America is increasing output; and Europe has a smaller capacity, mainly for domestic consumption. In contrast, Asia accounts for 41.4% of global demand, but has practically no fluff pulp production. And the only mill manufacturing fluff pulp in Asia, operated by Daio in Japan, needs to import the wood from across the Pacific.
In North America, three companies—Georgia-Pacific, International Paper, and Paper Excellence-Domtar—control 77.4% of all contemporary fluff pulp output. In the first half of the decade they closed several important fluff pulp mills in the U.S., reducing supply and pushing prices up. Only limited expansions are planned for the region. So despite projects like Georgia-Pacific’s $80 million expansion of capacity at its Alabama River mill, U.S. fluff pulp production is forecast to be largely static over the next five years at around 6.5 million air-dried tons per annum.
One defining characteristic of the evolving fluff pulp market is the importance of swing mills – production assets that can switch production between fluff and other pulps. The market is increasingly dependent on this capacity: Smithers data show that in 2024, 3.4 million tons of such swing potential was used for fluff pulp. With few extra fluff pulp mills set to come on stream in the next five years, and further closures of older assets forecast, there will be even greater demand for swing mills. This could lead to more price volatility, particularly if demand for other pulp grades changes.
Most new fluff pulp capacity will be added in South America. The region has already increased its share of global supply from 6.7% in 2019 to 11.7% in 2024, producing 915,000 air dried tons last year. Multiple investments have been announced. Klabin will ultimately add an extra 500,000-600,000 tons of fluff pulp capacity via its $3 billion dollar expansion of assets in Brazil’s Santa Catarina state. This follows Suzano’s commitment in late 2023 to expand its output by 340,000 air-dried tons in the same country. And Arauco will continue to raise output at its Alto Parana mill in Paraguay.
These and other investments will raise South America’s fluff pulp capacity to 1.46 million air-dried tons in 2029.
The shifting dynamics in supply and demand for fluff pulp globally are analyzed in The Future of Fluff Pulp to 2029 from Smithers; including the impact of projected capacity expansions, leading market drivers, and strategic profiles of all major fluff pulp producers.
