Many hygiene companies are looking at India as the next (and probably last) great frontier for sales growth. Rising disposable incomes and low use penetration rates predict that the disposable markets will grow but experts are at odds over when this growth will take off.

“Whether it’s in the next five years or the five years after that is what people are debating,” says Pricie Hanna, diaper industry expert. “But it is definitely being seen as the greatest opportunity for growth after China.”

According to Euromonitor, there is about $11 billion worth of unmet potential in the Indian diaper market, $5 billion in the sanitary protection market and $1 billion in adult incontinence. This gap is closing, however, as consumers are spending more on baby care products and diaper sales are increasing. However, per capita consumption of nappies/diapers remains low in India compared to developed and even many developing countries as taboos remain in using them.

“There’s been talks locally about baby diapers leading to rashes and that the products are not natural and of course also that it’s a waste and an ecological threat to dispose of so many products, so there are multiple challenges to face while marketing and especially educating the population in India,” says Johan Berlin of Investkonsult. “This is of course also an issue with feminine hygiene products—that they are not ‘safe’ or are ‘toxic.’ It’s a combination of lack of education, too little disposable income to ‘have the guts’ to try and the taboos surrounding menstruation, although that is getting slightly better with several campaigns.”

Currently, baby diaper usage is concentrated in urban centers in India and available in rural areas is limited. This is restricting growth. In addition, consumers in rural India see diapers as an expensive product and in order to save costs, they tend to use cloth-type nappies/diapers that are reusable.

“India has a ‘non-disposable’ culture that’s in their backbone, which makes it a lot harder to penetrate the market. Also, the tendency of having grandparents taking care of the kids has not opened up for day-care centers and/or kindergartens,” says Berlin. “When that happens, we may see a slight change as well. Although we have working mothers in this generation, there’s still an older generation of grandparents alive that are taking care of the kids. Add to this a climate which does not call for excessive clothing and the equation is pretty simple.”

Per capita consumption of diapers remains very low at 39.3 units in 2016 for children aged zero to 3 years compared to 1,211.5 units in North America and 981.7 units in Western Europe. Consumers in India mainly use diapers only when travelling, which contributes to the lower per capita consumption of diapers in the country.

Meanwhile, in the feminine hygiene market, which has the highest penetration rate of disposable segments, leading sanitary protection manufacturers such as Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson and Kimberly-Clark have increased advertising and promotional activities to educate consumers, which has increased the usage of sanitary protection products. However, per capita consumption of these products within the age group 12-54 years remained very low at 13 units in 2016 compared to per capita consumption of 244 units in North America and 255 units in Western Europe.

“Growth is mainly driven by improved education and awareness particularly,” says Lynn Purvis, Hygiene marketing manager EMEA, H.B. Fuller. “Traditional media, such as television channels, newspapers, local NGOs, social media and the internet are also tools being used to overcome taboos and enabling women to be more open to talk about their femcare needs. Tool boxes and vending machines are being supplied in schools and colleges and the government is offering free or subsidized articles and working to resolve issues related to basic hygiene needs. Women’s self-groups are also working towards spreading more awareness and building a healthy environment for information sharing.”

Sanitary protection in India is dominated by international players. However, most of these products are priced at the mid to low level to make them affordable to consumers. Many consumers still do not use sanitary protection products due to the cost, therefore NGOs and consumers have been demanding that the government make sanitary protection products tax free.

Also hampering growth is the simple equation of affordability. “While pockets of more affluent consumers are demanding more differentiated products, like thinner and more natural-based choices, consumers need to be educated on why thinner can be as absorbent,” Purvis says. “Typically the perception is that higher fluff content means better performance in terms of absorbency. particularly in femcare.”