In some countries (about 20 of them) I also interviewed my clients to get their own estimations of their baby diaper market and later used their input to adjust my numbers not only to their own countries but also to other countries with similar economic or cultural conditions but where I had basically no information.I used this data to compare against a triggering PPP required for a family to have access to purchase diapers. This point was estimated at $4,000 of PPP per year. This does not mean they can buy all diapers with this income, it means it is just the starting point when a small faction of them start to buy them.The other limit was fixed at $15,000 PPP per year, where anyone above that level of income could afford the full use of the disposables for their babies.I did not use a linear equation but rather one adjusted more exponentially based on higher incomes.
Please take note that this is just an effort to get an approximation on the size of each market, for sure I do not claim to have exact information.In my opinion, the model provides a valid order of magnitude, in some cases within 10% error while in others as much as 25%; this is still useful in order to have a general understanding of the volume for baby diapers in each country, however a market intelligence specialist should be hired to develop the specific data for each country before a serious economic feasibility project. You can find several of them in my Disposable Diaper LinkedIn group.For sure the last 10 countries or so in the list are less known and the error may be even higher.
*Carlos Richer can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.